Protecting the Flag
The roll call vote, however, was a fascinating one.
The final tally, 66-34, has been widely reported as falling one vote short. There are a handful of very odd votes: Utah's Robert Bennett, among the Senate's most conservative members, voted no; while retiring Minnesota Democrat Mark Dayton, probably the Senate's most liberal member, voted yes.
But taking a look at the roll call vote suggests that the close defeat might have been more for show than anything else--the opponents appear to have had several no votes in reserve."Yea" votes included Harry Reid, Tim Johnson, Dianne Feinstein, Ken Salazar, Debbie Stabenow, and Robert Menendez. It's hard to believe that any of those six actually support the amendment, in their heart of hearts. But Menendez and Stabenow face potentially difficult election contests in 2006; Reid has come under attack at home for being too liberal since becoming majority leader; and the other three have cultivated images of themselves as moderates.
Meanwhile, three"nay" votes seem likely to help the senator who cast them. In Rhode Island, Lincoln Chafee's renomination strategy has been to encourage Dems to vote in the GOP primary--positioning himself as the only Republican moderate to vote against the amendment helps his cause. In Connecticut and Washington, meanwhile, Joe Lieberman and Maria Cantwell have been under fire from left-wingers in their own party, so their"nay" votes were probably wise politically.
The Senate came within one vote of approving another constitutional amendment under very similar circumstances. As Robert Caro reveals in his fine study of LBJ and the Senate, in 1954, Lyndon Johnson carefully stage-managed rejection of the Bricker and George amendments, which would have watered down the treatymaking clause. Democrats who needed to vote for the George amendment (which became the critical vote) for political reasons were allowed to do so, as LBJ had carefully counted votes and knew their votes wouldn't be needed to vote the amendment down. (LBJ had his own political concerns, representing a strong pro-amendment state.) But Johnson's plans almost went awry as the decisive negative vote, West Virginia's Harley Kilgore, was deep asleep in his office (with the"flu," his supporters claimed). Kilgore was roused, brought to the floor in a stupor and voted no.
I suspect Harry Reid was playing a role similar to LBJ's yesterday.