Jul 5, 2006

Full Circle in Connecticut

by Cliopatria

Joe Lieberman's recent announcement that he'll run as an independent if he loses the Democratic primary to insurgent Ned Lamont provides an interesting historic parallel for Leiberman's career. He holds the seat he now does in part due to a similar split within the Democratic Party over a foreign war.

From 1958 through 1970, the seat now held by Lieberman was occupied by Thomas Dodd (father of Lieberman's current colleague, Democrat Chris Dodd). Dodd was a hard-line anti-communist known for his Red-baiting speeches and strong support for the war in Vietnam. But he was censured for ethics violations in the late 1960s, and decided not to stand for re-election.

John Bailey, in an attempt to prove the continued power of the state Democratic machine, slated a colorless pro-war candidate as the machine nominee. But he was challenged in the primary (an unheard-of event for CT in those days) by the Ned Lamont of 1970--Joseph Duffey, an anti-war activist and high-ranking figure in the ADA. Duffey scored an upset in the primary, but then Dodd (with Bailey's quiet support) jumped back into the race as an independent. Dodd figured he could siphon off pro-war Dems from Duffey and get enough independents to narrowly prevail.

Unfortunately, Dodd and Duffey just wound up dividing the Democratic vote, and the race went to the third candidate--a one-term Republican congressman named Lowell Weicker, who won with a plurality. In 1970, Weicker ran as something of a Nixon supporter, though he quickly distanced himself from both the administration and the national party.

This maverick reputation allowed Weicker to survive a strong challenge from liberal Congressman Toby Moffett in a bad year for the GOP, 1982. So in 1988 the Dems decided to go with someone more centrist--Leiberman. In one of the year's two biggest Senate upsets (Conrad Burns' win in Montana was the other), Lieberman prevailed 51-49.

So, Lieberman, in effect, owes his seat to a schism within the CT Democratic Party over a foreign war, which set the stage for Weicker's initial election.

Will history repeat itself in 2006? As the Timesnoted, Lieberman's decision creates a problem for national Democrats. It probably makes Lamont the favorite for the primary--which is an amazing development. (Lamont is already cleverly playing the move, remarking,"I think he is trying to have it both ways, and on an awful lot of important issues over the last 18 years, he's tried to have it both ways.") But there's a big difference between 1970 and 2006. Weicker in 1970 was a credible, if largely untested, challenger. In 2006, the Republicans have put up a little-known former state representative. It's likely, therefore, that Lieberman will be re-elected, as an independent. I bet the GOP is kicking itself for not putting more emphasis on this race.

More Comments:

Lawrence Brooks Hughes - 7/13/2006

Joe has had a long run, and he is old enough to retire. He sees himself as God's lifetime gift to the U.S. Senate from Connecticut, but few others see him that way... Why shouldn't he let Lamont have it if he loses the primary? All the time he was running with Gore he was talking out of both sides of his mouth, and apart from the Iraq War suport he has little appeal to Republicans. He was two-faced about the Clinton impeachment trial, as we all clearly remember. In fact, he can't be effective with any faction in Washington in the future. His domestic problems were never congruent with his religious posture, either. Wouldn't it be best to just let little Joe fade away, an old soldier who did his best, as God gave him the light to see that best?

Ralph E. Luker - 7/6/2006

I'm a Weicker/Weld Republican, myself. Is it inconceivable that, if Lieberman loses the Democratic primary, the Republicans might pressure their nominee to drop out of the race in favor of offering the Republican nomination to Lieberman?

Greg James Robinson - 7/6/2006

True--William Weld's victory in the Massachusetts gubernatorial race over John Silber was another such occasion, although while Weicker ran as a liberal and Leiberman a conservative, Weld ran as a moderate and Silber as...Silber.

Robert KC Johnson - 7/6/2006

Indeed. That 1988 race was a very odd one--one of the few times in recent memory where it could fairly be said that the Dem statewide candidate ran to the Republican's right.

Greg James Robinson - 7/5/2006

Lieberman won against Lowell Weicker because he received considerable moral and financial support from regular Republicans, such as the Buckley family, who considered Lieberman a true conservative and Wiecker an apostate. If Lieberman loses the primary for abandoning the Democratic consensus, it would therefore not be without a certain poetic justice.