WAS THE UNITED STATES "A GRAVE AND GATHERING THREAT TO IRAQ AND THE WORLD"?

by Cliopatria

Juan Cole has the numbers:

Bush maintains that despite the failure to find weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, Saddam Hussein posed"a grave and gathering threat to America and the world."
This allegation simply is not true, however much a monster Saddam may be.
Let's look at the issue Harpers style:
US population: 295 million
Iraq population: 24 million
US per capita annual income: $37,600
Iraq per capita annual income: 700
US nuclear warheads: 10,455
Iraq nuclear warheads: 0
US tons of lethal chemical weapons (1997): 31,496
Iraq tons of lethal chemical weapons (1997): 0
Number of foreign troops and civilians US military has killed since 1968: approx. 2 million
Number of foreign troops and civilians Iraqi military has killed since 1968: approx. 250,000

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Richard Henry Morgan - 1/30/2004

You're right Ralph, there are other ways to play with the numbers. By my calculations, and my stipulative definition, Iraq is more than 82 times the threat of the US, per dollar of national income.

Ralph E. Luker - 1/29/2004

Yes, I'd thought about that, Richard. It is one thing that you can do with Cole's numbers. Incidentally, if you want to know the sources for his numbers, you can get his e-address at his blog and ask him.

Richard Henry Morgan - 1/29/2004

To be even more anal-retentive (so as not to disappoint you), were we to take Cole's figures at face value, and as truly significant, and treat demonstrated lethality toward foreign troops and foreign civilians as a measure of threat, then Iraq turns out to be more than 1.5 times as much a threat as the US, on a per capita basis. Isn't it amazing what one can do with numbers and stipulative definitions?

Ralph E. Luker - 1/29/2004

Richard, Forgive me, but it pleases me to see that Cole's numbers have agitated you. You are at your best when agitated.

Richard Henry Morgan - 1/29/2004

PPS

I'm trying to figure out why somebody would quote a dated 1997 when it is a matter of public record, and easily available on the internet, that the US has already (by September 2003) reduced the stock by 23% from the 1997 figure. Somebody help me out here.

Richard Henry Morgan - 1/29/2004

PS

If you distribute the term 'foreign' over 'civilians' too (a reasonable reading of Cole's work), then his figures come closer to the truth, but still seem to leave out Kuwaitis killed. Adopting Cole's implied definition of 'threat to the world', the complete destruction of the Iraqi civilian population by Iraqi military would not count against Iraq as a 'threat to the world'. Iraqi civilians will no doubt find comfort that they are not part of this world.

Richard Henry Morgan - 1/29/2004

250,000 as the number of foreign troops and civilians killed by Iraqi military since 1968? You really want to stick with that fantasy number?

The Federation of American Scientists view of just the Iran-Iraq War of 1980-1988, as found at http://www.fas.org, seems to differ considerably.

Here's the money quote:

"The war claimed at least 300,000 Iranian lives ...

This is a particularly interesting source because it is precisely the FAS that Cole cites for his US chemical weapons figures. You will note also that the weapons figures are dated -- they are 1997 figures. The US has been destroying stocks to make the 2007 treaty deadline.

I would add that when you add in the Shiites killed in Southern Iraq, the Kurds in Northern Iraq, and the various and sundry executions by military squads throughout Iraq, Cole's 250,000 figure looks increasingly dubious. You will note also that he supplies no source for his 250,000 figure.

It is a curious paradox that those killed by the US to stop the genocide in Bosnia and Kosovo get tallied against the US as evidence of our "threat" to world peace. I would also point out that by this numbers logic, Cambodia presents one of the gravest dangers to the world -- since we're tallying since 1968, well over a million Cambodians were dispatched by Pol Pot's military.