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Nov 14, 2007

Is Paul Krugman right that our politics are shaped by glaring inequalities?




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For an economist, Paul Krugman rests an awful lot of the argument he makes in his new book, The Conscience of a Liberal, on history. His chief claim is that we are living through a second Gilded Age which has put the rich in the driver's seat of American politics, ending a period of Middle Class egalitarianism brought about by Franklin Roosevelt and the New Dealers.

He admits starting the book with a misconception. He initially had believed that burgeoning inequality in the 1980s transformed our politics, giving conservatism momentum. But he finished the book convinced that inequality in the 1980s was the product and not the cause of conservative policies. How did conservatism achieve its great success? Movement Conservatism, he argues, used race in the 1970s to divide the New Deal coalition and win over disgruntled whites in the South. This is an old pattern in American history, he contends. Citing a Harvard study he insists that racism is the reason the United States did not establish a European-style welfare system. He provides as an example of the dynamic what happened to Harry Truman's plan to create a system of national health insurance. Despite overwhelming public approval of the plan whites in the South torpedoed it out of fear that hospitals would be integrated.

In a devastating review in the New York Times, Stanford historian David Kennedy dismissed much of Krugman's history:

History according to Krugman goes something like this: the nation suffered through a ''Long Gilded Age'' of let-'er-rip, dog-eat-dog capitalism until the New Deal created a new social order characterized by income-leveling taxes, job security, strong labor unions, a prosperous middle class, bipartisan solidarity and general social bliss. Krugman invokes that post-World War II ''paradise lost'' in his first paragraph, and his yearning to restore that Edenic moment informs all the pages that follow.

But as the story unfolds, serpents slither into the garden, in the form of pesky ''movement conservatives.'' Those upstarts set out in the 1960s to exploit racial tensions, national security anxieties and volatile value-laden matters like abortion, school prayer and gay rights ''to change the subject away from bread and butter issues.'' By century's end they had managed to fasten upon their hapless fellow citizens ''a second Gilded Age'' in which inequality is on the rise and even the modest American version of the welfare state that the New Deal put in place is in danger of being dismantled.

For this dismal state of affairs the Democratic Party is held to be blameless. Never mind the Democrats' embrace of inherently divisive identity politics, or Democratic condescension toward the ungrammatical yokels who consider their spiritual and moral commitments no less important than the minimum wage or the Endangered Species Act, nor even the Democrats' vulnerable post-Vietnam record on national security. As Krugman sees it, the modern Republican Party has been taken over by radicals. ''There hasn't been any corresponding radicalization of the Democratic Party, so the right-wing takeover of the G.O.P. is the underlying cause of today's bitter partisanship.'' No two to tango for him. The ascendancy of modern conservatism is ''an almost embarrassingly simple story,'' he says, and race is the key. ''Much of the whole phenomenon can be summed up in just five words: Southern whites started voting Republican. ... End of story.''

Is Kennedy right? Is Krugman's analysis thin?

Excerpt from The Conscience of a Liberal.

America in the 1950s was a middle-class society, to a far greater extent than it had been in the 1920s--or than it is today. Social injustice remained pervasive: Segregation still ruled in the South, and both overt racism and overt discrimination against women were the norm throughout the country. Yet ordinary workers and their families had good reason to feel that they were sharing in the nation's prosperity as never before. And, on the other side, the rich were a lot less rich than they had been a generation earlier.

The economic historians Claudia Goldin and Robert Margo call the narrowing of income gaps that took place in the United States between the twenties and the fifties--the sharp reduction in the gap between the rich and the working class, and the reduction in wage differentials among workers--"the Great Compression." Their deliberate use of a phrase that echoes "the Great Depression" is appropriate: Like the depression, the narrowing of income gaps was a defining event in American history, something that transformed the nature of our society and politics. Yet where the Great Depression lives on in our memory, the Great Compression has been largely forgotten. The achievement of a middle-class society, which once seemed an impossible dream, came to be taken for granted.

Now we live in a second Gilded Age, as the middle-class society of the postwar era rapidly vanishes. The conventional wisdom of our time is that while this is a bad thing, it's the result of forces beyond our control. But the story of the Great Compression is a powerful antidote to fatalism, a demonstration that political reform can create a more equitable distribution of income--and, in the process, create a healthier climate for democracy.

Related Links

  • Michael Kazin: Is Paul Krugman a Good Historian?


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    More Comments:


    - 11/14/2007

    Krugmann is a typical elite liberal moron. Those who cant do teach, and those who cant do or teach write columns


    Xeno77777 - 11/11/2007

    Posted to HNN; comments on Paul Krugman's Critics.

    Paul Krugman states his thesis in the style of a Thesis in the Natural Sciences, especially physics. He only states what is essential, but the bare minimum, necessary. His style is not Verbose, but the bare minimum. Krugman's critics seen never to have taken a course in mathematics, science, nor engineering. They long for articles and thesis's that run off at the mouth, endlessly: There motto seems to be; never use ten thousand words precisely, when one can use one hundred thousand words to say something very roughly similar. Moreover, they must have been asleep the past 43 years, since Barry Goldwater; suddenly, like Rip Van Winkle, they wake up and are amazed at all the changes that have taken place, and at Paul Krugman's cogent, self validating thesis. In Science, scientists are always trying to find the privileged viewpoint that allows for accurate measurements, with no complications. This is what Paul Krugman has done; He has simplified and taken accurate measurements. Before Modern Science, observer's were like many of Krugman's critics; they observed and noted everything, except the right things; then there is professional jealously; then many are kept persons, loyal not to the Holy Spirit of the Truth. but to their Rich Patrons, who follow the "Philosophy" of the Feudal Lords. By 1600, the Feudal Lords (and Royals) of Europe had decided to reject Aristotle and Jesus, whom they blamed for their decline in power and public respect. Issac Newton followed both, and even tried to write theology using the exact methods of mathematical physics, which was mistaken, but at least his heart was in the right place. However under orders to attack and denigrate Issac Newton, his successors invented all sorts of Equations, George I of England's Librarian even pretended to independently invent calculus, drawing upon information available in England. But when Albert Einstein and his Relativity Equations came along, Newtons fit right in, both as general statements, and as special cases, and Newton's rivals, the self preening kept persons, did not, so their follies gather dust on the shelves of famous old libraries. Krugman's critics need to become better educated and better read, and, if possible at this late date, put Honor of the Holy Spirit of the Truth, as their Crown Virtue, controlling all others, and all else!
    There are many, many more histories than mere compilations of ignorant old newspapers, which were kept by some Rich Person.


    Tim Matthewson - 11/7/2007

    Ever since about 1973 if not before, there has been a growing disparity in income between the elites and middle class. The agenda that inspires the elites is the use of the political process to enlarge the share of income acquired each year by the upper reaches of the income distribution ladder. Some people refer to this political process as Market Fundamentalism, but I think that it would be best to call it a class warfare ideology amounting to, as Lou Dobbs, has said a War on the Middle Class.
    George Soros, a billionaire philanthropist, has become a prominent critic of capitalism. In one of his many books, The Crisis of Global Capitalism, Soros harshly criticizes true believers in the wonders of unregulated free markets, an ideology he calls "market fundamentalism." Soros attacked market ideology on several grounds, ranging from amorality to its role in fostering financial instability. Soros disputes the fundamentalist claim that the "invisible hand" of selfish individual behavior will be good for everyone:

    "Market fundamentalists... [claim] that the common interest is best served by everybody looking out for his own interests. This claim is false... There are many political and social objectives which are not properly served by the market mechanism... These include the preservation of competition and of stability in financial markets, not to mention issues like the environment and social justice."

    Soros further argues that free-market ideology threatens political democracy:

    "By promoting market values into a governing principle, market fundamentalism has undermined our society. Representative democracy presupposes moral values, such as honesty and integrity, particularly in our representatives. When success takes precedence over integrity, and politics is dominated by money, the political process deteriorates."

    Another prime tenet of textbook economics is that free markets tend toward stable "equilibria." Soros, with vast experience in financial markets, believes that they are inherently unstable (with the recent capital flight from east Asia a case in point):

    "The concept of equilibrium is very misleading when it is applied to financial markets and macroeconomic problems. Economic equilibrium is a useful concept when markets deal with known quantities. But financial markets don't deal with known quantities... As a consequence, the future cannot be known, and the bias expressed in the market participants' decisions becomes an important factor in determining the course of events... There are times when the participants' bias is self-correcting... but at other times the bias is self-reinforcing until it becomes unsustainable, and on these occasions markets exhibit a boom-bust pattern."

    Perhaps the defenders of the free market would benefit from listening to one of its most successful practitioners.


    - 11/3/2007

    Kennedy is a conventional wisdom, simple minded, kinda guy. Nothing ever matters. He ends his review discounting any effect of Republican influence on the supposed great American middle of the road inertia. He tries to make the case that the Democrats are more to blame for Republican ascendancy than the Republicans. This is ridiculous, on the face of it. You can't blame the Communists for the Rise of Hitler,(as the Trotskyists did) or the Socialists, as the Communists did. It was Hitler who took power, not the left. The dialectic does not work from the weaker force, but from the more powerful force.

    Kennedy said: " 'There hasn’t been any corresponding radicalization of the Democratic Party, so the right-wing takeover of the G.O.P. is the underlying cause of today’s bitter partisanship.' No two to tango for him. The ascendancy of modern conservatism is 'an almost embarrassingly simple story,' he says, and race is the key. 'Much of the whole phenomenon can be summed up in just five words: Southern whites started voting Republican. ... End of story.' "

    Well that is certainly true but not really the end of the story, and it is certainly not the Democrats' fault. They are conventional wisdom kinds of guys just like Kennedy. They didn't think it could get this far and they lack the class base to do anything about it. How can they change the system when their funding comes from essentially same places as the Republicans -- except for the right wing crazies who had taken over the party until recently? A majority (or nearly) of the eligible voters don't go to the polls because no one is giving them leadership they respect. Kucinich and Bernie Sanders are fighters, but one believes in UFOs and the other talks to an empty Senate on C-Span.

    If the war were so important why don't the House and the Senate refuse to pass anything until they can force a withdrawal?

    These guys are more worried about getting re-elected than stopping the war or tax cuts, or no child left behind or....

    What does Kennedy know? His review was so polemical he used a misleading quote to claim that Krugman was not an economist at the beginning, then begged for Krugman the economist, to save us from disaster at the end!


    Tim94595 - 11/3/2007

    I agree with Krugman.


    Clare Lois Spark - 11/3/2007

    I have read all the comments and can only conclude that the Keynesians and the followers of Hayek glare at each other over an abyss. I wish the social democrats here would explain their schemes for wealth creation, as opposed to inciting class warfare, which has never worked out well.
    I believe it was Joshua Muravchik (author of Heaven on Earth) who wrote that there would always be negotiation between social democrats and neoliberals as to the extent of the safety net and related matters. I honestly do not know of any free market intellectual who wants to return to the bad old days of unregulated capitalism.
    Reminder: it was the second world war that ended the Great Depression, not the New Deal.


    zenpundit - 11/2/2007

    I'm not certain I was saying that economics cannot give us powerful and elucidating explanations. Just that constructing a model of the quantifiable variables in a scenario involves a greater degree of simplification than traditional historical methodology.

    Whether the simplification is a powerfully concise statement of historical truth or a misleading distortion depends on how close the variables the economist is number-crunching is to the historical causation of an event. Sometimes that "mess" is where the secret sauce to what really happened is hiding.


    Frank Roberts - 11/1/2007

    In my opinion, after reading Krugman's book, I think that he is on the money regarding the period of the New Deal and its aftermath. In addition, he is correct regarding the Long Guilded Age and our movement into a New Guilded Age. I speak as an historian, not as an economist. There is no doubt in my mind that the goal of "movement conservatives" is to roll back what was achieved dring the period of the New Deal and its aftermath. That is surely what what Bush had in mind when he tried to privitize social security, to mention just one example.

    I think Krugman's book is well researched. I also think the review you have published does not do justice to the book.

    Frank Roberts
    Professor of history, emeritus
    Calvin College


    anon - 11/1/2007

    I think there is a fundamental misunderstanding here about economic methodology - rather than suffering from a narrow and subjective approach, it is rather supremely objective, and can be comprehensive. It's fault lies not in its extrapolation from "just a few variables" but from its extrapolation from variables themselves - things that can be quantified. Because you can't quantify every messy interaction, you hope that you can capture these things in your controls and specification. Statistically it is sound, and in skilled hands this method can be extremely powerful and elucidating.

    Of course this lends to conclusions that can be nicely summed up in just a few sentences, something that historians seem to find revolting. Yet these sentences pack quite a punch - they're saying "given everything else (that we could think of and measure), here's what we found really matters to the specific question we're asking." There's certainly room to attack his conclusions, however, but I for one would rather read an historical rebuttal to Krugman's ideas, rather than an attack on them as being "too simple."


    David Burner - 11/1/2007

    Kennedy is right, Krugman wrong. Identify politics over the last decades had done more than anything else to destroy the Democratic Party since the eighties. For example, maybe Hillary Clinton and the Times Tuesday night even got the message that most Americans, for good or ill, oppose anything more than a very modest immigration bill. "Illegal" means illegal, is an undestimated argument. And to hear from Charlie Rangel that Hillary does not even endorse a bill restoring the tax level to the pre-2001 level is a good measure of her and her husband's cozying up to corporate interests as seen by their obscene cynicism in collecting from almost every businessman in America except Warren Buffet. And the condescension toward "red necks" is probably an even worst error.


    Taylor George - 10/31/2007

    Kennedy's primary gripe is that Krugman, an economist, is not sticking to his last. He is simplifying, selectively picking from, and thereby distorting history. It is a legitimate point that, in a slightly different form, also applies this website, which claims to be run by historians but is actually run by journalists.


    Robert Carlson - 10/31/2007

    Suggest you watch Friedman discussing Corporations in the documentary film "The Corporations"

    There is Friedman himself admitting that there is "social responsibility" to Corporate capitalism. And there is Friedman agreeing that Corporations produce what economists call "Externalities". Examples of "externalities" could be the production of PCBs, DDTs, pouring paint in a river".

    I would imagine that Friedman would deny that he had anything to do with brutal and murderous policies of the Pinochet dictatorship in Chile. But his name will always be associated with it in History


    Clare Lois Spark - 10/31/2007

    I should have added that those who fret over growing inequality have been fearful of servile revolt, hence the old money's relative asceticism and their denunciations of the luxury-loving nouveaux riches. Read The Nation in 1919, Feb.8, and see their admonitions for their readers to make sacrifices, move sharply to the left in order to vanquish the "violence" of the Socialist Party and the IWW.
    Advocates of the welfare state should not represent neoliberals as simply hard-hearted and vanquishers of social safety nets. Milton Freedman, for one, hotly denied such intentions.


    Robert Carlson - 10/31/2007

    Unregulated or laissez faire capitalism or the "wild, wild West without the Sheriff has never worked in any country it has been used. Consider Brazil...the highest rates of inequality in the world and and almost 100 percent pure capitalism...and no significant social programs..and with the attendant misery, crime, even starvation, monopolies, etc. Pure Capitalism always produces these results...almost a natural law. That was the result in England, in the rise of capitalism, the result in Brazil and the same result in the USA

    In contrast consider Norway. All the statistics show it has the highest standard of living in the world and that is based not on capitalism but a heavily socialist economic mode.

    You are consumately wrong.


    Robert Carlson - 10/31/2007

    Unregulated or laissez faire capitalism or the "wild, wild West without the Sheriff has never worked in any country it has been used. Consider Brazil...the highest rates of inequality in the world and and almost 100 percent pure capitalism...and no significant social programs..and with the attendant misery, crime, even starvation, monopolies, etc. Pure Capitalism always produces these results...almost a natural law. That was the result in England, in the rise of capitalism, the result in Brazil and the same result in the USA

    In contrast consider Norway. All the statistics show it has the highest standard of living in the world and that is based not on capitalism but a heavily socialist economic mode.

    You are consumately wrong.


    Clare Lois Spark - 10/31/2007

    I was always puzzled by the bogey of income inequality as a measure of a society's worth, for it seems obvious that the specific condition of those deemed "poor" should be described and then evaluated as unacceptable, given the state of development, or not.
    The notion of equality is a staple of utopian thought, and I refer HNN readers to the devastating chapter on Saint-Simonians and the subsequent ideology of the welfare state in Frank and Fritzie Manuel's Utopian Thought in the Western World (Harvard UP, 1979).
    Krugman idealizes the New Deal. I have studied the rise of social psychology during that period, and it was distinctly organicist and antimodern, manipulative, paternalistic and deceptive.


    Jo Ann Kay McNamara - 10/31/2007

    Krugman is absolutely right. His book is not a detailed history of our times but it is a brilliant synthesis of historical trends that lead to the crisis we are presently facing in our democratic society.


    Ann Greene - 10/31/2007

    I think its important to separate the historiographical argument from the reality of inequality, reduced opportunity, corporate power, and the ability of elites to transform the system to their benefit in "permanent" (or at least in difficult-to-change) ways. Americans talk about race when they are really talking about class, and about class when they are really talking about race, so they grapple with neither. It allows those of us who are the most privileged to pretend that it doesn't apply to us because of course, we are all just "middle-class."


    HNN - 10/30/2007

    Your HNN editor replies:

    When I used the word "devastating" I meant the review would be considered devastating to any author.

    I did not mean to imply that Professor Kennedy's opinion of the book was definitive or that he had demolished Krugman's arguments.

    I meant to suggest only that the review was highly critical.


    Shawn Gorman - 10/30/2007

    Kennedy's vague ad hominem carping aside (like ruling Krugman's thesis out of court on the basis that he is not sufficiently orthodox to merit the professional title "economist"), the review in the NYT is far from "devastating." Kennedy manages only to bring up a single substantive critique, which is to assert that the off-the-scales inequality in the contemporary U.S. has produced the Republican political success of the last few decades, rather than the other way around. Anyone who believes this argument holds water should remain in their ivory tower sucking their thumbs for the rest of the century. As for Kennedy's other objections to Krugman, people who live in the real world can ignore them, because the "subtlety" that is a hallmark of academic merit in Kennedy's eyes -- you know, like a subtle analysis would never say that Republicans have manipulated race in their arguments against the "welfare state" -- is an exact synonym in ordinary parlance for what comes out of the rear end of a cow.


    - 10/30/2007

    Material inequality has expanded and contracted many times since Washington took the oath, and there has been enormous mobility inside its arbitrary parameters, especially lately. It has been a old yoyo, too--it didn't start gyrating under FDR. Vast fortunes came with industrialization after the Civil War, and some were there earlier. Much of the U.S. began as an aristocratic, almost feudal society, but it mostly lost that character by the mid-19th century. Many fortunes were lost. Racial politics were often important long before the GOP had any "Southern Strategy." But these days, it seems, nobody can write a book without draging in racial politics, whether it makes any sense or not. And I have to say a great many books which are designed around fevered theories of racial politics are a total waste of time.

    It isn't clear to me why the large number of millionaires and multi-millionaires today should be seen as having lost us the "paradise" of post WWII egalitarism. I was around after WWII, and believe me, some were more "equal" than others then, too, though not anywhere near as many as today. It seems foolish to lament the fact so many of us have become so rich.

    And what can be done about large groups of people in poverty like we saw in New Orleans? Not much. LBH's "war on poverty" turned out to be a scourge on national solvency, instead. The feds could bomb such neighborhoods with currency, but all of it would be in the hands of a few people again shortly afterward. The best thing to do is just what we are doing now: Build a fantastically prosperous country which can afford taxes to fund reasonable safety nets; then cut taxes at the margin and let capitalism rip. It has performed far better than any other system ever tried anywhere.


    zenpundit - 10/30/2007

    Dr. Krugman is a first-rate economist as well as a partisan, Democratic, liberal columnist for the NYT. The combination of the two makes it highly improbable that he would write a book in the manner of a historian, even a Left-wing one.

    Economists tend to think in terms of models and extrapolating from just a few variables or perhaps only the one in which they are most interested. A useful approach but that kind of reductionism ignores the interdependent complexity of human events with which historians are regularly forced to deal. Even historians, it must be fairly said, are forced to simplify when engaging in historical analysis but as a matter of course their methodology simplifies reality to a lesser degree than that of economists.

    Murray Rothbard, the late, radically free-market economist, once wrote a history of the 1929 Stock Market Crash. So did John Kenneth Galbraith. They are stimulating books to read but an intelligent reader does not approach them thinking that Rothbard could have come to the conclusion that subsequent New Deal interventionism was warranted or that Galbraith would emerge as an advocate of Darwinian market-clearing liquidation. It just wasn't in the cards with how the authors approached their books, intellectually.

    Krugman is just as unlikely to find any virtues in objectivity or nuance.

    http://zenpundit.blogspot.com