A New Mexico Anomaly
If Udall runs, it will set up what appears to be a first in at least the last fifty years—a state with more than two House members all running for the Senate in the same year.
Two-member delegations simultaneously standing for the Senate are rare enough. In 1962, the death of longtime incumbent Styles Bridges set up a four-way Republican primary between the gubernatorial appointee, the senator's widow, and the state's two Republican congressmen. Representative Perkins Bass, the most moderate of the four, narrowly captured the primary, but the bad blood extended to the general election, and Bass was upset by Democrat Thomas McIntyre. McIntyre went on to win two more terms; he is the last New Hampshire Democrat to serve a full term in the Senate.
In 1976, Republican Hiram Fong, who had represented Hawaii since its admission as a state, retired. The state's two Democratic House members, Spark Matsunaga and Patsy Mink, both sought the seat. The two had interchangeable voting records, though differed in temperament: Matsunaga tended to get along with the Democratic establishment, while Mink had been one of the early House opponents of the Vietnam War. Matsunaga narrowly prevailed and then held off former governor William Quinn to win the seat. Ironically, both Matsunaga and Mink would die in federal office—Matsunaga in the Senate, in 1990; Mink in the House, to which she eventually returned, in 2002.
In 1994, Senate Majority Leader surprisingly declined to run for re-election, setting up an open-seat contest in Maine. The state's two House members, Democrat Tom Andrews and Republican Olympia Snowe, both decided to run. On paper, it looked like Andrews would win easily—he had beaten strong candidates to win the primary and then general election to the House in 1990, and had sailed to victory in 192. Snowe, on the other hand, was tarnished by the poor performance of her husband (then-Gov. John McKernan) and won re-election with less than 50 percent in both 1990 and 1992. Yet Snowe seized the early lead, attacking Andrews for his acceptance of base closings to cut the defense budget, and in a strong Republican year won by nearly 25 points. Had Andrews held off, he almost certainly would have been elected senator in 1996, when Republican Bill Cohen imitated Mitchell in a surprise retirement.
There have been, of course, occasions in which more than two House members have run for the same Senate seat. The most recent such contest occurred in 1992, after Democrat Alan Cranston retired. Representatives Barbara Boxer and Mel Levine both ran in the Democratic primary; Congressman Tom Campbell unsuccessfully sought the GOP nod. Boxer scored an upset victory in the primary and narrowly won election in the fall.
The prospective New Mexico race, however, appears to be the first in at least the 50 years in which an entire state delegation greater than two ran for the same Senate seat. Given that small states generally exercise their influence through their delegation's seniority (think Alaska), the effects on New Mexico of the 2008 race will be enormous: in one election, the state will lose 36 years of seniority in the Senate and 27 years in the House.
For the House trio, however, the risks apparently outweigh the rewards. New Mexico has a custom of re-electing its senators: the last remotely close Senate election in the state occurred in 1982, when Democrat Jeff Bingaman was first elected. In 2006, Bingaman captured his fifth term, with 70.6 percent of the vote, four years after Republican Domenici won his sixth term with 65 percent.