Week of September 1, 2008

It is starting to look to me like a nation-defining election. And in this it seems almost old-fashioned. 1992 for instance didn't seem or feel nation-defining, not as I remember it, nor did 2000. 1964 did, and '80 did, but they both ended in landslides. Landslide is not what I'm seeing here.

Where are the Democrats going to go? I suspect to foreign policy. In politics it used to be called Tolstoy: war and peace. McCain-Palin will mean more war, Obama-Biden will mean peace.

This campaign is about to become: epic.

Towards the end of 2006, George W. Bush decided he's just like Harry Truman, who was unpopular while in office, but whose stature grew with the benefit of hindsight. Last night, Sarah Palin decided she's like Truman, too.

Josh Marshall asked, early on in Palin's speech,"Is Sarah Palin really comparing herself to Harry Truman?" Why, yes, yes she was.

"Long ago, a young farmer and haberdasher from Missouri followed an unlikely path to the vice presidency.

"A writer observed: 'We grow good people in our small towns, with honesty, sincerity, and dignity.' I know just the kind of people that writer had in mind when he praised Harry Truman."

I'll just let Eve Fairbanks take it from there:

Palin pointed to Harry Truman, who had small-town experience growing up in Independence, Missouri. Well, I don't mean to be credentialist, but Harry Truman also served heroically in World War One and was a U.S. Senator and the nationally-known head of the Truman Committee before becoming FDR's running mate. He took a long road from his small town to the vice presidency -- a lot longer than Sarah Palin's.

Governor, we know Harry Truman, Harry Truman was a friend of ours, and you're no Harry Truman.

As recently as this afternoon some silly pundits were acting as though Sarah Palin was supposed to reach out to Democratic-leaning women and Hillary Clinton supporters. That myth should be put to rest for good now. Her speech marked a willingness to fight this out as a battle of the bases, a Karl Rove style struggle in which the goal is to energize more of our 50% to turn out and beat your 50%. As in other such elections, policy details are optional because symbolism, ideology, character assassination, and emotional attachment are the coins of the realm.

The University of Cambridge, with nearly 800 years of history, wants to be on soap operas. The Guardian reported that Cambridge officials, concerned about an elitist image they believe is out of date, have asked producers of leading British soap operas to add story lines that would present the university in a “student-friendly light.”

If McCain wins in November the presidential nominees in 2012 will be Hillary Clinton and Sarah Palin.

(Assumptions: If Obama loses he will soon be forgotten and Clinton will have control of the Democratic party. McCain will only serve one term, and will strongly push for a continuation of his policies by his VP, as opposed to Romney, say, or Huckabee.)