Week of September 22, 2008

Presidential debates are important -- and the first debate is the most important of all, establishing an arc of opinion that persists unless jarred loose by big mistakes or dramatic events.

So whether this year's first presidential debate between Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain is Friday night or postponed a few days, it may be the fall's most critical event. In the nine first debates since 1960, the perceived winner of the debate averaged a 4.2 point net swing in the Gallup poll.

Mao Zedong announced the adage by which John McCain is clearly living now:"The enemy advances, we retreat. / The enemy camps, we harass. / The enemy tires, we attack." Mao was describing not a conventional but a guerrilla war, and McCain is now unexpectedly playing the Filipino insurgents of 1899 to Obama's America. Guerrilla wars are waged by the weak but wily. McCain has all but announced that his conventional campaign has crashed and burned. We do not know if the prepping for the debate was a disaster, or it turns out you really can't let Palin be interviewed freely by normal people, or terror that a second great depression will turn the country communist.

Let's try one of those annoying analogy questions from the aptitude tests you took in high school: Vietnam is to Iraq as the savings and loan crisis is to [BLANK].

McCain might have trouble with that, but the rest of us would say,"the financial crisis of 2008" though it may have a nicer title at some point.

There are subjects I know a lot about and others I know very little about. And the high-wire financial mess we're currently in falls clearly into the latter category. But I know enough to be troubled that we appear ready to give upwards of a trillion dollars in unfettered and unreviewable spending authority to the ... let's face it, the Bush administration, the folks who did such a bang up job in Iraq and New Orleans.

This morning a friend told me it's like the Iraq War all over again -- Shock & Awe, followed by an occupation of Wall Street, and all with no exit plan.