Maine in the National Arena
As anyone who follows politics now knows, Maine (along with Nebraska) allocates its electoral votes by congressional district. The statewide winner receives two electoral votes; the winner of each congressional dstrict receives an electoral vote apiece. McCain is now targeting the sprawling, mostly rural 2nd district—since scenarios exist (Obama winning the Kerry states plus CO, IA, and NM; McCain winning the rest of the Bush states plus NH) in which the 2nd district’s one electoral vote could become decisive.
The 2nd district has one of the quirkiest voting records in the country. In 1972, it ended eight years of Democratic control by electing Republican Bill Cohen to the House—even as it also gave its votes to the incumbent Democratic congressman, William Hathaway, in his successful Senate race against Republican Margaret Chase Smith. In 1994, amidst the GOP tsunami, it ended 22 years of Republican control by electing Democrat John Baldacci to the House—even as it also gave its votes to the incumbent Republican congresswoman, Olympia Snowe, who captured the Senate seat held by Democrat George Mitchell.
The district also has behaved in odd ways in presidential contests. In 1992, it was Ross Perot’s strongest district east of the Mississippi—he actually finished second, ahead of (sometime) Maine resident George H.W. Bush. And in 2000, though the state as a whole went comfortably for Al Gore, George W. Bush barely fell short of stealing the 2nd district’s electoral vote.
Demographically, the district isn’t all that good for Obama. It’s overwhelmingly white. Residents of its two major cities, Bangor and Lewiston/Auburn, have below-average education levels and are overwhelmingly white ethnic. In the 2008 Maine caucus, which Obama easily won, he ran behind Clinton in Lewiston/Auburn, some of the very rural northwestern counties, and in far-north Aroostook County. (Obama swept the more liberal 1st district.) Guns and hunting are also a critical component of the district’s culture, which presumably should increase Sarah Palin’s appeal there. That said, I admit I can’t recall hearing many “Main Street” Mainers regularly use words like “doggone it” or “you betcha” in actual conversation; or regularly wink at the people with whom they were conversing. The district’s congressman is a pro-life, pro-gun Democrat, Mike Michaud.
Recent polls show Obama’s Maine lead at only 5 or 6 points. In short, McCain has a chance at taking the 2nd district. Whether that matters is another story altogether.
It’s odd to see Maine as a player in the political universe. It’s even stranger to see the state as a player in the legal universe. The two Supreme Court cases raise big issues. The first, Altria Group v. Stephanie Good, asks whether more lenient federal consumer protections can trump state consumer protection agencies. (This question has a long resonance in Maine history, dating from the 1920s, when the Maine public utilities commission was among the nation’s most aggressive regulatory bodies.) The second case involves the degree to which unions in closed shops need to refund politically related costs to dissenting employees.
Both of these questions, of course, have been of considerable concern to the Rehnquist/Scalia bloc in the 1990s and the conservative bloc more recently. And given Justice Kennedy’s voting record, it seems likely Maine will see its authority curbed in the first case, while the dissenting workers will have their rights upheld in the second.
Either way, it’s remarkable to see Maine attracting so much attention.
Disclaimers: I am an Obama supporter and donor. I am a Maine taxpayer, though I don’t believe my taxes would be affected by either of these cases. At CUNY, I supported a case brought by David Seidemann, who successfully proved that the PSC, CUNY’s faculty union, was covering up the amount of dues used for political purposes, and thereby shortchanging agency fee payers.