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Nov 27, 2004

Ukraine




What outgoing President Leonid Kuchma termed the"so-called revolution" in Ukraine raises some fascinating questions about the nature of what Joseph Nye has termed America's"soft power"--even in the wake of the Iraq war--and also the usefulness of recent US policy toward Russia, an issue that's attracted little attention lately.

At this stage, there's little doubt about the massiveness of the vote fraud that allowed the pro-Kuchma candidate, Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich, to narrowly prevail in the runoff election. This map shows the dramatic increase in voter turnout between the initial election and the runoff, almost all concentrated in areas where Yanukovich is strong, and lending credence to talk of stuffing ballot boxes. Indeed, the final report from what could be termed Ukraine's so-called Central Election Commission shows turnout figures in Yanukovich districts (including 96.2% in his home region) that would have made Texas' George Parr, the legendary Duke of Duval, blush.

One remarkably good up-to-the-minute blog brings us to the front lines of the revolution in Kiev--and helps explain the increased difficulty of pulling off a fradulent election. The history of neighboring Belarus might be different today if this kind of reporting had existed a decade ago.

The furious Russian reaction against western protests, however, has to raise some questions about the utility of the strongly pro-Putin policy that US has pursued for the last five years. To a certain extent, of course, there was little choice in the matter: the alternatives to Putin have always looked worse. But George Bush's reassurance that he had looked into Putin's heart and seen a Democrat seems a lot less reassuring today, and I wonder whether this election--regardless of the final outcome in Ukraine--signals the emergence of a more tense period in US-Russian relations.



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Robert KC Johnson - 11/27/2004

Good point!


Richard Henry Morgan - 11/27/2004

I don't know if it would make Parr blush or not, but that figure certainly didn't make Daley blush, if you look at the late precincts reporting from Chicago in the 1960 Presidential election. We are not always the best example to the rest of the world.