Why did Trump win?Breaking News
tags: Hillary Clinton, election 2016, Trump
Why did Trump win — and Clinton lose — the 2016 U.S. presidential election? That’s been debated widely, to understate the case. Nominees include each campaign’s ground game, messaging, FBI Director James B. Comey’s last-minute letter to Congress, and defections from the “Obama coalition.”
Here, we offer new data to show that shifts in which racial groups went to the polls may have made the difference.
Using data from the voter file vendor Catalist and information from the U.S. Census Bureau, we examine the change in turnout rates for different racial/ethnic groups between 2012 and 2016. Black turnout declined dramatically; white turnout increased noticeably; and Latino and Asian American turnout went up even more. In the key swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, those shifts were especially strong. How strong? Without those shifts in turnout from various racial and ethnic groups, these pivotal states might have gone not to Trump but to Clinton — giving Clinton an electoral college victory.
comments powered by Disqus
- 5 Hard-Earned Lessons from Past Pandemics
- Museum’s Future Clouded by Chance Discovery: Swastika Hiding in Plain Sight
- 'And The World Went Crazy': How Hollywood Changed After Hiroshima
- America’s Military Should Confront Its Past, Not Bury It
- Trump and the Suburbs: Is He Out of Tune with America's Increasingly Diverse Voters?
- White Author Reflects On Finding, Bringing Together Descendants Of Enslaved People In His Family (Audio)
- A Milestone for Palestinian Studies
- Paul Seaver, Leading Historian of Early Modern England, Dies at 88
- Trump has Never Even Read a 'Children's Book' about Abraham Lincoln: Douglas Brinkley (Video)
- Taking My Children to See Frederick Douglass