What Works (And Doesn't) at the Presidential Debates
Two weeks later, at the second debate, three separate sound systems prevented technical errors. But then what a candidate most fears occurred. With the Cold War still raging, President Ford declared, “There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe.” “That is the dumbest thing I ever heard!” Carter’s aide Stuart Eizenstat rejoiced offstage. The Democrats were especially pleased because the gaffe reinforced a popular perception, fueled by Chevy Chase’s Saturday Night Live skits, that Ford, despite being a Yale Law School graduate and former University of Michigan football star, was a dumb klutz.
As the 2004 presidential campaign enters debating season – with three joint appearances scheduled between John Kerry and George W. Bush, with a fourth vice presidential debate added – campaign aides, journalists, and viewers will be looking for the defining gaffe, the dramatic soundbite or image that transforms the campaign. In fact, over the last three decades more debates have been characterized by the nervous, overly-cautious silence of the first Ford-Carter meeting than the fleeting dramatics of the second. Much of the hype over the next few weeks will recall Ronald Reagan’s “There you go again,” quip to Jimmy Carter in 1980; an aging President Reagan’s rebound quip, “I’m not going to make an issue about Mr. Mondale’s age and experience,” to his younger challenger in 1984; or Senator Lloyd Bentsen’s body blow to his greener colleague and vice presidential rival in 1988, Dan Quayle: "Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy." But such moments have been rare, and not always defining. While Reagan surged after the 1980 debate, in 1984 he was already on his way to trouncing Walter Mondale, and Senator Bentsen’s riposte against Quayle did not defeat George Bush Senior.
Still, the rhetorical death watch will intensify the drama surrounding what often is a disappointing – and boring – confrontation. The dynamics of the twenty-seven miinute silence continue to dominate. Fear of stumbling can be paralyzing. Most candidates tend to be overprogrammed – after Ronald Reagan’s weak first debate in 1984, his campaign manager Paul Laxalt said the “briefing process … brutalized” the president. The tyranny of television and the searing, microscopic scrutiny of the media, put a premium on not rocking the boat. Hyperconscious of their every move in front of millions, Carter and Ford acted so cool as to be frozen in place.
Reporters also bear responsibility for the deflating outcomes. Journalists have placed themselves on banana peel patrol – and the way they report events influences the outcome. Ford’s internal polling in 1976 estimated that Gerald Ford beat Jimmy Carter during the second debate. Most viewers ignored the president’s premature, rhetorical liberation of Eastern Europe. Polling data in the Gerald Ford President Library shows that with each round of the ensuing news cycles, with each headline about Ford’s gaffe, Ford lost ground. By the end of the week, Ford’s pollster estimated they lost by 45 percentage points – a devastating turnaround that reflected the relentless media pounding. More recently, “spin alleys” have developed outside the debating halls, with both parties unleashing their respective attack dogs to feed the media beast and shape the “postgame” show.
Finally viewers, er voters, should also be blamed. As in so many other dimensions of modern politics, what voters say they want differs from how they act. Voters claim they want issue-oriented exchanges. But inevitably, when candidates focus on “just the facts,” a collective yawn arises rivaling the latest Florida hurricanes. John Kerry miscalculated this summer when he allowed the “Swift Boat Veterans for Truth” to trash his record. Americans wanted to see the fireworks, they wanted to see the candidate respond – and without an effective response many swing voters began to believe the charges.
Last week, Canwest reported that an undecided voter in Ohio gripped Senator Kerry’s hand and asked: “What are you going to tell somebody like me, who is on the fence?” Kerry denounced President Bush’s handling of Iraq, stared straight into her eyes and said, “I know how to get it done.” Rita Maris swooned: “I’m voting for him. He was not so uppity as to overlook me.”
Here is the key to the campaign, which rationalists and reporters overlook at their peril. Americans want to be heard and seen; they want to sense that the candidate is caring and is a leader. A shrewd candidate, while certainly addressing issues Americans care about, will also use discussion of the issues to show he cares. The challenge in the debates – as in most democratic politics -- is not just to get the right answer – but to answer in the right way.