Is President Bush Fated to Fail in the Second Term?

Hats off to the NYT for the headline above Lou Cannon's Tuesday morning op ed: "Can Bush Break the Second-Term Jinx?"

Every president of the last 100 years has faced debilitating scandals or ennui in their second term. That's a warning light on Bush's dashboard. It doesn't mean he will be similarly enfeebled as his predecessors were. History is never so neat and simple and predictions usually fall flat. But the word jinx nicely captures the untoward possibilities.

Just to review, for those who may doubt the existence of a jinx: Woodrow Wilson failed to win approval of the Versailles treaty ending WW I, FDR failed to pack the Supreme Court and failed (in the off-year elections) to purge his party of conservatives, Harry Truman had Korea, Ike was caught lying to the public about the U-2 flights over Russia, Nixon had Watergate, Reagan had Iran-contra.

But were they more than jinxed? Is there something about second term presidencies that invites disaster?

Two forces pull at second term presidents in opposite directions and lead to problems. One is common to all executives. After a certain amount of time you tend to run out of energy. Going through the campaign often wears out the most resilient of people. So they muddle along, don't ask hard questions, think they know the answers, and mistakes happen. This phenomenon accounts for Korea, the U-2 incident, and Iran-contra. In Korea Truman failed to press Douglas MacArthur on the possibility that the Chinese might enter the war. Ike didn't keep a close eye on the U-2 flights, allowing that last dangerous flight to go forward despite hard evidence that the Soviets were now tracking our spy planes. Reagan was asleep when Oliver North and John Poindexter cooked up the diversion of profits to the contras from the sale of arms to Iran in exchange for the hostages (though the president apparently knew about the deal with Iran).

A second force pulls presidents in the other direction: hubris. After winning a second term presidents often feel invincible. This combined with a strong desire to fix their place in history with first-rate accomplishments leads invariably to trouble, as is most readily seen in Woodrow Wilson's second-term apocalyptic visions of peace and freedom. Bush seems most likely to fall victim to the Wilson syndrome. Both evidenced moral crusading in their first terms, which seemed ratified by the election results, giving them a reason to redouble their efforts as crusaders in their second terms.

Teddy White once remarked that presidents tend to replicate the behavior they associate with their success on the assumption that it led to their success, which may or may not be true, and in any case, may only have been true under a certain set of circumstances. As an example: In his first term Wilson was able to succeed in passing path-breaking legislation, teaching him the lesson that an iron-willed schoolmaster could bring unruly legislators to heel if enough pressure were applied. In his second term he tried the same bullying tactics on the Senate when the Versailles treaty was under consideration. Unfortunately, circumstances had changed. The Democrats no longer held overwhelming majorities in Congress as they had during his first years in office and the public by now was weary with the high-mindedness Wilson exhibited.

Sometimes, the first force and the second force dangerously combine. In an attempt to address the first problem--drift--presidents try to reinvigorate their administrations by taking on a series of fresh exciting challenges. Often, however, they overreach, in part because of problem number two, hubris.

Example: Richard Nixon. Following his landslide victory in 1972 Nixon told aides he intended to radically revamp the federal government. He would consolidate cabinet departments, humble his "enemies" in the bureaucracy, and centralize power in the White House. As a first step he demanded the resignations of his entire cabinet (and executive appointees as well) just days after they had celebrated his victory (a victory many had worked hard to bring about). He never had a chance to implement his dreams, of course, because the Watergate scandal led to the unraveling of his administration. But the effort was misguided from the start.

President Bush has already given signs that he is following in Nixon's footsteps. He has announced that he intends to use his political capital to advance a far-reaching agenda. No scandal being on the horizon, Bush will probably be able to get more of what he wanted than Nixon did. But if he is crude and brazen in his use of power, which is likely given the pride he has taken in his victory, he can count on stern opposition, frustration, and ultimately public weariness. Stymied in his efforts, he may be tempted to circumvent the congressional process and achieve change through executive action. Should he take this road, he will almost certainly find that as he looks through his rear window there won't be many people following.

In his first term President Bush often gave in to apocalyptic rhetoric--like Woodrow Wilson. That suited the times, given the war on terrorism. But history suggests that it will be difficult for Bush to sustain his appeal if he persists in propounding apocalyptic visions. While he has more power than he had in his first term by virtue of his election victory and the bolstering of his majorities in both houses of Congress, a president cannot indefinitely hang on to public support without showing results. And results will be hard to come by in his second term. Iraq is likely to remain a source of trouble, good jobs are apt to continue migrating abroad, the deficits will get higher, and another terrorist attack is possible.

A more modest approach might be called for. But this president does not seem to like modest presidencies (like his father's). So we are faced with the likelihood of another second term president who tries to do too much and fails.

As I indicated at the beginning, history is not a crystal ball. Anything could happen. But my advice: Buckle your seat belt. We're in for a wild ride.