Column: 10 Days that Shook the Bush Presidency
If you ever wondered what it would look like for the wheels to come off the Bush presidency, the last ten days have certainly been it. It has been a disastrous last few days for the Bush administration. Recently, some journalists have argued the current situation resembles the political corruption and crony capitalism of the Gilded Age. While this argument has some merit (and, as a Gilded Age historian, I plan to examine it in a future column), Bush's presidency appears to be reliving some very recent history -- that of his father's administration's struggles with the economic woes of the early 1990s. Bush I's administration ultimately seemed out of touch with the people during the difficult economic times of 1992. And Bush I's administration had none of the political liabilities that Bush II does. Bush I's administration certainly didn't seem to be closely related (even in bed) with those who appear to be to blame for the economic woes. For W, it's clearly a difficult situation.
What makes this situation even more ironic is that W has taken his father's administration as a cautionary tale. W believed fervently he could avoid his father's fate. In fact, Bush has seemed to work consciously trying to not repeat his father's mistakes. Strangely enough, his administration's solution to Bush I's perceived mistakes has been to govern from the right and try to keep the right-wing happy. I would argue that such a solution is a major mistake -- it was the economy and Bush I's seeming obedience to the right in 1992 (anyone remember Pat Buchanan's speech at the convention?) that ultimately cost him his re-election. Of course, it didn't help that Bush I was running against one of the best politicians of the century in Bill Clinton. Americans in 1992 didn't want conservatives to have greater sway within the administration.
From all accounts, the events of the last few days appear to have doomed congressional Republicans. I would suspect Dick Gephardt is probably measuring the speaker's office for curtains at the moment. And no matter how many times Republican leaders and pundits (Ann Coulter in particular) try ridiculously -- and desperately -- to blame Bill Clinton's penis for the Wall Street crisis, things look pretty grave.
What happened in the last ten days you ask? Well, let me give you a quick review. First, the obvious: Bush made speeches about corporate responsibility and shoring up public faith in the stock market. These speeches coincided with an incredible drop in the value of the market the likes of which hasn't been seen in quite a long time (since the last Bush no doubt). On July 22, as the market went from 60 points up to 235 points down after one of Bush's pronouncements, one business reporter on a cable news network even quipped "It appears the president has done it once again." Older Americans do not take kindly to having to put retirement off indefinitely because of economic problems that appear to be the result of Enron-style Bush II era corporate governance. To anger older Americans right before an election -- who vote in higher proportion than the rest of the public -- is to court disaster. If Bush pushes to privatize social security and invest it in the stock market in the next few months, the wrath of senior citizens across the land will descend upon him. If he pursues this course of action, he may very well get Herbert Hoover numbers in 2004.
Second, in the last week the president has been required to defend not only Vice President Dick Cheney's conduct as a CEO at Halliburton when the corporation allegedly cooked the books but his own conduct as a member of Harken's board. Bush's performance in the hastily-called press conference was embarrassing and certainly sent mixed public messages. At one point the president claimed that in corporate accounting "sometimes things aren't exactly black and white" -- a pretty slippery and Clintonesque response if I ever heard one.
Meanwhile, Dick Cheney has disappeared from public view (into the constitutionally-questionable bunker no doubt; see "Bush in the Bunker" 3-11-02) and rumors are floating about Washington that he will resign within the next few months. Many congressional Republicans probably wish he would hurry up and do so. Some wags in Washington are even wondering out loud if Cheney may be under indictment by this time next year. Cheney's case was not helped by Bush's statement of confidence that Cheney would be exonerated by the SEC. Given recent disclosures, one could not help but wonder if Cheney will be exonerated in the same suspicious fashion the SEC closed the investigation into the Bush matter in 1993 by sending a letter explaining that the closing of the investigation "must in no way be construed as indicating that [Bush] has been exonerated." Further complicating Bush's problems are that SEC documents uncovered this last week raise significant questions about Bush's own story explaining his unloading of the stock. Bush clearly knew a restatement of earnings was coming in the next couple of months. It doesn't matter how large Bush thought the restatement was going to be, it has the appearance of knowing something bad was coming. That appears to be insider trading in most people's book. Call me crazy but I can't help but think that if W were Bill Clinton, the Republican house would be drawing up impeachment articles about now. Insider-trading is not something that would be easily forgiven (at least if the transgressor was a Democrat) given the current political atmosphere in the country.
Third, one of the more interesting things that has come out in the press the last few days are that many Democrats in Congress (and some journalists) are beginning to ask questions about the identity of the anonymous buyer of Bush's Harken stock in 1990. At that time, many wealthy Saudis, including members of bin Laden's wealthy and influential family, were closely allied with the Bush family and involved financially with them. Some in Washington have wondered if the mystery buyer wasn't someone associated with bin Laden's family. It certainly would explain why Bush seems so reticent to release any details about the purchase and it would be awfully ironic given later events. How would he possibly explain to the satisfaction of the average American that he was in bed economically and politically with the family of his recently self-appointed devil? (For the record: the White House says that Bush himself does not know the name of the person or group which purchased his shares of Harken stock.)
Fourth, and most amazingly, it also appears that Bush is planning on taking another month-long vacation in August -- although the administration and the press are being strangely quiet about it. Seemingly unable to remember the public outcry and political malaise that accompanied his last such sojourn (not to mention the now-infamous August 6 security briefing about airline hijackings), Bush plans on repeating this public relations disaster once again.
Finally, in a week that seems to go nowhere but down for the administration, Bush has now gotten official confirmation that public support is slipping disastrously. On July 22, two different polls showed Bush's electability rating had dropped incredibly. According to one poll, only 47 percent of Americans now believe that Bush deserves a second term. Considering that Bush only received 48 percent of the vote in the general election, his support has now slipped below the 2000 level and is much below the level of public support he enjoyed in the days after September 11th.
It is safe to say at this point that Bush's administration has squandered the advantageous political position it held a few months ago in the wake of the terrorist attacks of September. Bush's latest policy initiatives aren't likely to help him -- especially the watered-down corporate responsibility bill in the House he currently favors.
However, in order to stay in office beyond 2004, Bush's administration has some tough decisions to make about the future. If the administration continues to govern from the right during an economic downturn, he is in big trouble. Ironically, many in the press are beginning to talk about another stock-market-driven double-dip recession like that which took Bush's father down in 1992.
As I told many of my colleagues at the time, I believed Bush was lying about his core political beliefs in 2000 -- and it's safe to say I have been proven right in the last 18 months. On all sorts of issues, his government has been significantly to the right of Ronald Reagan's. Bush is not likely to help his political cause until he truly behaves like the moderate he told Americans he was during the election in 2000. Many Americans voted for a moderate -- and they didn't get one. Like Bill Clinton, Bush is going to have to reinvent himself to win that all-important second term. This does not seem likely since Bush believes the solution to his problems is to please his party's conservative wing. Ironically, this decision to appease the right wing is clearly 1992 Bush I-era thinking at work.
There are even some in the media in Washington who are predicting a "wag the dog" or "October surprise" move before the election. Some are predicting that the administration will invade Iraq just in time to galvanize public support for the administration (and presumably Republicans) in the mid-term elections. Many in the European press are quite certain this will happen.
Unfortunately, the worst part about all of this is that this administration seems entirely capable of doing such a thing. This administration has shown it is not above using anything -- war included -- to advance the administration's political fortunes. As someone who ran one of the most misleading campaigns for the presidency in American history, Bush fatally miscalculated by talking like a moderate during the presidential campaign and, once in power, running the government from the right. As in 1992, Americans today don't want to give the corporately-connected right-wing what it wants -- especially during times of economic crisis. It's time for W to prove he is a reformer and a moderate. After all, even though I knew better, that's the man many Americans thought they were electing in 2000.